Memory Price Surge Could Shrink Global Smartphone Production by Up to 15% in 2026

• February 11, 2026

Global smartphone manufacturing is expected to face significant challenges in 2026 due to escalating memory prices, industry analyst TrendForce reports. The pressure from these rising costs could lead to a noticeable decline in the number of smartphones produced worldwide.

Projected Decline in Smartphone Output

According to TrendForce’s analysis, the smartphone market may contract by 10% in production volumes under the most optimistic outlook. This scenario suggests that approximately 1.135 billion units could be manufactured globally in 2026, marking a substantial decrease compared to previous years.

In a less favorable scenario, the company warns that shipments could fall by 15% or more. This sharper drop underscores how sensitive the smartphone supply chain is to fluctuations in memory chip costs, which represent a critical component in device manufacturing.

The ongoing surge in memory prices impacts production costs directly, prompting manufacturers to potentially scale back their output to mitigate financial risk. Memory modules, including dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash storage, are essential for smartphone functionality, making their cost a key factor influencing overall device pricing and profitability.

Such a reduction in smartphone production could have ripple effects across related sectors, including component suppliers and retail markets. As manufacturers adjust their strategies in response to higher input costs, consumers may also experience changes in availability and pricing of new devices.

While the projections do not provide specific details on how individual manufacturers will respond, the anticipated decline in volumes highlights potential market contractions under current economic pressures. The smartphone industry, a major driver of global electronics demand, will likely monitor memory price trends closely throughout the year.

Overall, this analysis from TrendForce signals challenging market conditions ahead for smartphone makers, with memory prices acting as a significant constraint on production in 2026.

Rising memory costs may reduce worldwide smartphone output by 10 to 15 percent in 2026, according to TrendForce projections.